At 4/1 is To Honor and Serve-gate#2
At 6/1 is Flashpoint-gate#8
At 8/1 is Stay Thirsty-gate#6
At 20/1 are the final trio in this field of 8 in Arch Traveler in gate#3, Bowman’s Causeway in gate# 4 and Shackleford drew gate# 5!
- With the speedy Flashpoint now in this race, Soldat will not have the lead all to himself, so another wire to wire performance doesn’t seem to be in the cards here Sunday!
- We expect early factions from Flashpoint of 23 and 3/5, 46 and 4/5 , 1:11 flat, and from that point on Flashpoint will either fade or do much like what The Factor did in the Rebel Stakes and go on with it. If he does he will vie for the win. Any faster factions then the one’s above and a pace collaspe is unavoidable in the stretch for Flashpoint!
- Soldat who will probably stalk until the head of the stretch where he will then challenge Flashpoint and here is where the dice-roll comes in. If Soldat challenges for the lead too quickly, a duel to the death (so to speak) will ensue opening the door for Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty in very deep stretch!
- You should expect, at least, 3 lead changes, in the stretch, under the above scenario!
So if we were picking today, we’d start with strategies for wagering first. As long as there are 8 starters when the gates fly open, than there’s good value here as all exotics will payout reasonably well, regardless of the outcome!
We think multiple trifectas and the cheapest supers you can find are the best ways to go here to capture the true value from this race!
If you’re going to use exactas, use $1 boxes on at less 3 or 4 here as the best ways to cash in on the underlying value here with exactas!
Next use pedigrees, last three performances and total life earnings as a guide forward! Click on the free pp’s above to help you with that!
As for us, Soldat will find the board, at least, if not win outright. Dialed In will be a deep closer and vie. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty “have too” and I mean “have too“go all in on Sunday or look for something else to do on May 7th! All their tomorrow’s are gone it’s do it now or never!
The wildcard is Flashpoint, if you don’t use him, he just might burst up your best plays.
If you do use him, where?
Best and safest places would be in one of your supers as he may falter by the mile mark but still fill up that super for you. Use him, but not in all your supers!
As for the 3, 20/1 long shots, well remember last year’s Florida Derby where Ice Box and Pleasant Prince both at 30/1 or more took down the 1 and 2 spots!
If you have that feeling, use them only in supers, as a repeat of last year seems against the odds.
You may find the memory of that contest will still be playing on the minds of the “Gulfstream faithful” as that too will only enhance the underlying wagering value in this race!
So the Florida Derby kicks-off the GI portion of the 2011 “Derby Trail” season with millions in purse money up for grabs and a handful of those precious Derby gates to go to the victors!
It’s “Show-Time” everyone, so lets load them up and turn them loose towards Louisville and the 137th running of the “Kentucky Derby”!
See more picks from Bloodhorse!