Another upset winner in Shotgun Gulch comes home in this race! See Keeneland Madness at work here!
The GI, $750,000, for 3yo’s only, going 1 1/8 mile, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes is on tap this Saturday on Keeneland’s premiere race day of its spring meet!
We wait all year-long for this race, why? Well, America and all points on the globe, if you are looking for the most unpredictable, crazy, loopy, loony and insane race you’d ever have to handicap, this one is it!
Imagine, if you will, you have 12, 3yo’s all in a desperate scramble to get enough G/S earnings from this race to make the Derby field in 3 weeks, put them all on this Keeneland poly-surface for the first time ever and then make them go 1 1/8 mile for the first time in their lives!
This is “Keeneland’s” annual formula for insane 3yo wagering!
So lets check this field of 12 desperate 3-year-olds on a “last-chance power drive”.
Santiva is the 3/1 favorite here with the Poly-track experience. We’d be all over him here but for 2 factors (no pun intended).
a.) he already has the G/S earnings to make the Derby field!
b.) is he just out for the exercise here?
I don’t know about you, but if I had a 3yo with enough G/S earnings for a derby gate how hard would I tell the jockey to push him in here! He may be 3/1 on the m/l but “me thinks” the only way he wins this is if it just falls into his lap! Supers only!
At 5/1 is King Congie who’s a fine 3yo turfer with 3 straight turf wins, bugged out of the Spiral at Turfway last month with an “injury”! He’s trying the poly for the first time here but has gone the mile and 1/8 before. 5/1 sounds good to us, exotics for him!
At 6/1 are the odd-couple in Wilkinson and Brilliant Speed.
Wilkinson is here to pick up G/S money and will need a win or a place showing to make it to Louisville. He won the GIII Le Comte but then finished 6th in the Louisiana Derby last time out. Don’t know if he’ll like the poly any better either. Dime supers only!!!
Brilliant Speed is a stakes-running-turfer with 5 board-hits in 5 races. He might take to the poly Ok, but needs the win to move on! Dime supers for him too!
At 10/1, 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 is the rest of this field. So here are the names we think could spring a surprise win here. Twinspired, Joe’s Blazing Aaron, Wilcox Inn, Crimson China and Queen’splatekitten! All of them should find their way into 10 cent supers somewhere, as well!
Keeneland/Krazyland tradition of off-the-wall finishes was only reinforced in last Saturday’s GI Ashland Stakes where another 48/1 longshot won that race.
Our best picks for this race are simple, spent $18 on the 9 we mentioned, in $2 win tickets and then sit back and watch this race unfold right before your very eyes. It will be great fun and probably highly profitable too as you’ll only need an 8/1 shot to win and break even. Sorry it’s the best we can do under these crazy conditions.
Note* Since going to the poly, this race’s winner has never gone on to win a Kentucky Derby.
Street Sense took a 2nd here in ’07 and Paddy O’Prado who took a 2nd here last year then finished 3rd over the Louisville slop in 2010 and that’s about it for this race’s influence on a Kentucky Derby outcome!
Just remember this is America’s craziest race with 11 of the 12 horses in here, who are all desperate for a win to move on to Churchill Downs on May 7th! So “anything” and I do mean “anything” can happen here. “SO BE WARNED” or sit it out! We wouldn’t miss this race for all the “Tea in China”! Good Luck out there with this contest everyone!
The GI $500,000, “Apple Blossom” Stakes is up this Friday at Oaklawn Park with a field of just 5, 4yo and up Fillies and Mares, going 1 1/16 mile.
Leading this short field at 4/5 is Havre De Grace. This leader of the ladies handicap division this year appears ready for another big Oaklawn test as her last victory here was a stunner in the GIII Azeri Stakes. She finally defeated Blind Luck (who is not running here on friday) in a graded stakes race on her own terms! So she has to be the clear favorite here and only a bad ride from Eclipse Award winning jockey Ramon Dominguez could ruin this party. So we will go out on a limb here and say she should be first into your boxed exotics!
Shipping in from sunny Southern California way are a pair of top-flight ladies in multiple Graded Stakes winner Switch at 6/5 and recent GI Santa Margarita winner Miss Match at 10/1 . These two tangled in that same Santa Margarita contest where Switch did everything but win that day as Miss Match came on late to nip Switch at the wire. Those two ladies covered the 1 1/8 mile course that day in a very good 1:46 and 4/5. So these fine ladies should be in your exacta, trifecta wagers as there’s no super wagering here in this 5 horse field!
At 15/1 is Belle Watling a chilean import, where she was known as the Zenyatta of South America, well not quite, but she was a big-time multiple group/grade winner down there! She’s had some success in the States with a win and a 3rd in some minor dust-ups here but this will be her first big dance. She is a turf horse by trade and can go the longer distances with ease, so 1 1/16 mile isn’t going to be a problem for her here! Looking for a little foreign-intrigue in your exotics, try her in one of your 50 cent Oaklawn tri’s!
At 10/1 is Absintheminded who finished a decent 3rd here in that GIII Azeri Stakes last month. No, she probably won’t win against this crowd but for another Oaklawn 50 cent’er, put her at the back of a tri.
So what we have in this compact field just might be a B/C Ladies Classic preview, a rematch between the two Santa Margarita foes, a hot senorita from way down under and a up and coming 4yo trying to gain some respect!
What more elements could we add to make this the best “race of the day”, oh, I know how about a $500,000 purse and get mentioned in the same breath with the 2-time winner of this race, Zenyatta!
So Gracie and Switch are logical 1’s and 2’s with the all button filling in your 3rd’s!
It probably won’t payout well as a 5 horse fields are liken to do and any scratches here, well, we all know how that will pay out!
Sounds like a good enough reason to be plugged into this race on Friday!