Why “Big Race Days” are so wild and how to profit from them!

"Scene of some wild race days"!

We promised you an expose’ on big race day’s after this last weekend’s debacles and some explanations on why they are so wild!

First, lets take a trip into why these big race days can be so unpredictable, then we’ll toss around a few idea’s on how to profit in them!

“Why are Big Race Days so Wild” ?

Big race days are to the casual bettor, what St Patrick’s day is to the casual drinker. In both cases, they over-do for the sake of the day! They over bet favorites, pay no attention to scratches, track conditions, surface switches, known names coming off long layoffs or anything else that the everyday track-junkies know by verse! They are the sheep waiting to be sheered by the racetrack and you! Want to be the sheep or do the sheering?

  1. There aren’t many mismatches on big-time racing days. Most of the big Graded Stakes are bringing together the best horses in their division’s race, that day. So there’s little talent differential here and it’s pretty much a matter of who gets the best ride on that day! Not a lot of non-maidens or maiden-winner-only’s will get into these races either. So there’s not much difference between a 5/2, 3/1, 7/2 and a 5/1 or 6/1, as a 10/1 gets over-looked and wins. This happens quite a bit more than you’d think on a Big Race Day. It’s the combination of these first 2 notions that will set your head to reeling on Big Race Days! Stay calm!
  2. Undercards are important too! They can set the tone for an entire day of racing or what we call at this blog, the “Theme of the Day“. Example: Sometimes certain jockeys, trainers or barns are having good luck in the early undercard races, ever have a hot run playing poker, blackjack, slots, days at the track or too many relationships in your life, so to speak! So the “Trend is your Friend until it comes to an End”, is our adage here! Know the theme for that racing day and you’ll be up to your eyeballs in “fleece”! This isn’t an easy thing to do as every big race day is different but go to enough of them and you’ll start to see it!
  3. Undercard’s are loaded with under the radar horses, so let me explain this notion. Under the radar horses are good horses who show up in lesser races to get the chance at winning some purse money for their connections but most folks will miss this. Under the radar horses have many varying definitions to them but the easiest way to spot them is they generally look out-of-place on your program for the race they are entered in. They too, add their piece to a wild race day!
  4. Any 2-year-olds or even these early season 3-year-old contests can go in off in the strangest of directions and for one reason. These youngsters are still growing up, still learning how to race. These aren’t the handicap division thoroughbreds with long racing resumes. Horses like “Uncle Mo” for instant whose had but 5 lifetime starts hasn’t even really been tested yet! So if this year’s Derby Trail seems to be all over the map, well it should be, it’s what the Derby Trail is for, a time of testing and we are the ones expecting consistence. All these races should say “Caution youngsters at work”! 

No, the simplest way to explain why “Big Race Days” are so wild is that Big Race Days are simply different from the average race day’s predictability that requires a different set of ideas about handicapping these kinds of days and a different set of wagering tools to take advantage of!  There’s just so much more going on in Big Race Days and you will need a whole new mindset to deal with them too!

“How to profit from this phenomena”!

  1. This type of day requires what we call, Defensive-Betting! Defensive-Betting is a term we coined here to describe some ways of wagering on big race days to take advantage of the underlying value in every race, with less risk, as every field will be full thus more money in every wagering pool!
  2. Start with, at least, 3 or 4 horses in every race then use Boxed exotics, as trying to pull off a single-win-ticket cash will turn painful for you in a heart-beat. Multiple win tickets will work better on days like this, just make sure the lowest odds cover the entire amount you will wager on this race! You will pop a big one or two each big race day and hold on to your wallet, as well!
  3. Look for good horses being over-looked by the wagering public, example: the 2010 GI Acorn Stakes on Belmont Stakes day was won by a 38/1 shot but she had a couple of very good Graded Stakes wins to her name that year already and shouldn’t have been 38/1. Your amateur wagers miss this one! This horse should have been 15/1 or less here and in your boxed exotics too. Look for crazy under-betting like this! It’s a winning notion!
  4. We talked about “Themes” before, well the answer is, don’t tempt fate if you find that flow to the day. Stay with it until it turns. If favorites are ruling the day early, stay with them.
  5. Got a 1/9, 1/5, 1/4,  2 or 3/5 favorite in a race then start looking for another answer, as the public is probably over-betting here, “this is a key tool you well find useful on Big Race Days. Secretariat and Zenyatta are not racing anymore, so there is no one out there today who cannot be beaten! re. “Uncle Mo everyone!

So Big Race Days are indeed different from average ones.  As the rules for average daily wagering will get skewed by the upgraded talent levels in each race and the track bias for that day. Use the above tools, plus our “10” rules for better wagering on our wagering for dummies page under the Racing Information tab at the top of our homepage!

These tools should help you bypass most of the Big Race Day pitfalls but you’ve got to stay cool and think you way through each situation as it arises!

Good Luck out there everyone!

“You Asked” and “Buddha Provides” !


Updated List of Kentucky Derby Graded Stakes Earnings for 4/11/11!

Here’s is this week’s updated Kentucky Derby Graded Stakes earning that includes this weekend’s action!

The “criteria” for a Kentucky Derby gate is Grade Stakes earnings!

Here’s the list below!

Rank  Horse – Trainer  Graded Earnings

       1 Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher $1,360,000

       2 Dialed In – Nicholas Zito $840,000

       3 Comma to the Top – Peter Miller $671,000

       4 Toby’s Corner – H. Graham Motion $625,000

       5 Pants On Fire – Kelly Breen $623,000

       6 Midnight Interlude – Bob Baffert $600,000

       7 J P’s Gusto – Joseph Petalino $541,500

       8 Soldat – Kiaran McLaughlin $540,000

       9 Master of Hounds – Aidan O’Brien $441,884

       10 Twice the Appeal – Jeff Bonde $400,000

       11 Mucho Macho Man – Katherine Ritvo $370,000

       12 Decisive Moment – Juan Arias $301,000

       13 Animal Kingdom – H. Graham Motion $285,000

       14 Astrology – Steven Asmussen $281,893

       15 The Factor – Bob Baffert $270,000

       16 Stay Thirsty – Todd Pletcher $260,000

       17 Jaycito – Bob Baffert $250,000

       18 Santiva – Eddie Kenneally $240,254

       19 Watch Me Go – Kathleen O’Connell $235,500

       20 Shackleford – Dale Romans $212,000

Top 20 only!

       21 Arthur’s Tale – Tom Albertrani $200,000

       22 Nehro – Steven Asmussen $200,000

       23 Silver Medallion – Steven Asmussen $184,334

       24 Anthony’s Cross – Eoin Harty $182,000

       25 Archarcharch – William Fires $180,000

       26 Joe Vann – Todd Pletcher $167,400

       27 Brethren – Todd Pletcher $155,000

       28 Blue Laser – Mark Casse $143,502

       29 Flashpoint – Richard Dutrow, Jr. $140,000

       30 Willcox Inn – Michael Stidham $139,000

       31 J J’s Lucky Train William Anderson $122,000

       32 Mr. Commons – John Shirreffs $120,000

       33 Sweet Ducky – Herman Brown $120,000

       34 Travelin Man – Todd Pletcher $120,000

       35 Norman Asbjornson – Christopher Grove $100,000

       36 Lou Brissie – Neil Howard $99,043

       37 Ruler On Ice – Kelly Breen $96,000

       38 Joes Blazing Aaron – Allan Hunter, Jr. $90,000

       39 Major Gain – Wayne Catalano $86,370

       40 Caleb’s Posse – Donnie Von Hemel $71,504

       41 Nacho Saint – Kelly Breen $70,500

       42 Wilkinson – Neil Howard $70,000

       43 Elite Alex – Timothy Ritchey $65,000

       44 Sway Away – Jeff Bonde $61,500

       45 Zoebear Scott Becker $55,800

       46 Twinspired – Michael Maker $47,500

       47 Surrey Star – James Cassidy $44,257

       48 The Fed Eased – Richard Violette, Jr. $38,190

Other “Strange Happenings” from around the Horse Racing world this Saturday!

If you thought the events in New York and L.A. were strange yesterday! Well we found a few more for you to ponder over!

Dateline-Oaklawn Park,

Win Willy beats Misremembered in the Oaklawn Handicap. Willy loves to run at Oaklawn. The oddity here is the “Oaklawn Faithful” didn’t bet down their favorite son more than the 5/1 post time odds on him. Oh ye of little faith you Oaklawn denizens. I guess the Misremembered people also didn’t take notice of the signs on the wall there that says “Willy’s House”! Ah, we love these “Home Cookin” horses

Dateline- Keeneland,

Race#3 was a very good turf Allowance dust-up for a $67,000 purse. So what, you say, well the what was who showed up here. Keeneland got Al Khali, Battle of Hastings, Memorial Maniac and Grassy, all big- time Graded Stakes turf winners to gather for this event, as this could have easily been a GI field anywhere else! Kudos to the Keeneland folks for only having to pony up $67 grand for a GI race. It’s called getting your money’s worth. So over their first 2 days of operations this spring they laid out just $167,000 in prize money for 2 top-flight turfer. Shocking only in the sense that some very good horsemen let their best charges run for so little! Oh P.S. none of them won here either! Hey, it’s Keeneland we’re talking about here, where the strange is the everyday norm!

Dateline- Santa Anita,

Race #8– an Allowance dust-up with, wait for it, “First Dude”. What’s shocking here is, first, he won, something he hadn’t done since his lone maiden win early last year but still found a way to be in every major GI 3yo race and B/C Classic last year and pocketing almost $900k along the way. But it was the way he won this race that was even more shocking as he, rated”. He sat chilly here until the stretch where he, wait for it again, “closed for the win”. Who says you can’t teach an old horse, new tricks! Shocking, simply shocking “First Dude” wins by closing. No wonder it was such a strange day!

Dateline- Gulfstream,

Race#10– the return of the D’Funnybone to sprinting in the Sunshine State Stakes and again he still couldn’t beat Coffee Boy! This time with no board hit either! Save your money on him until he returns to his mid-2010 form. Startling that he didn’t win, no, just how bad he was yesterday! Did you get D’boned yesterday?

Dateline- Penn National

Race# 9 featured the return of 8-year-old Graded Stakes winning sprinter Fabulous Strike in a 6f allowance outing over the slop. Winning in 1:09 and chg where he bested an early 3yo Fav from the NYRA circuit last year in Peppi Knows! Just remarkable that an 8yr old can still run a sub 1:10, 6f race in the slop after being away from racing for a year and a half!  A horse-racing Phoenix rises from the retirement Ashes here? Strange days indeed!

And our, “Grande Finale”!

Dateline- Keeneland again,

The GI Ashland Stakes,

Once again, Keeneland shows us why we’ve renamed this place “Krazyland at this blog! A 48/1 long shot named Lilacs and Lace went wire to wire (a truly odd event here) in beating one of the best 3yo filly prospects in the country in Kathmanblu (who finished an Uncle Mo 3rd here) in the process! Think this outing was crazed, the GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes is upcoming this Saturday. In what we refer to around here as “America’s Crazy” race. It’s a show we never fail to miss!

So in another sobering reminder from the“Racing-Gods” that we meer morals are but passing-bit-players on the greater stage that is the thoroughbred horse racing scene, they were just toying with us again this weekend!

Later is week we will do a refresher Editorial on Big Race day wagering and why they are so wild!

So to borrow a line from our old friend “John Lennon“, “Strange days indeed, most peculiar momma, roll”!