We promised you an expose’ on big race day’s after this last weekend’s debacles and some explanations on why they are so wild!
First, lets take a trip into why these big race days can be so unpredictable, then we’ll toss around a few idea’s on how to profit in them!
“Why are Big Race Days so Wild” ?
Big race days are to the casual bettor, what St Patrick’s day is to the casual drinker. In both cases, they over-do for the sake of the day! They over bet favorites, pay no attention to scratches, track conditions, surface switches, known names coming off long layoffs or anything else that the everyday track-junkies know by verse! They are the sheep waiting to be sheered by the racetrack and you! Want to be the sheep or do the sheering?
- There aren’t many mismatches on big-time racing days. Most of the big Graded Stakes are bringing together the best horses in their division’s race, that day. So there’s little talent differential here and it’s pretty much a matter of who gets the best ride on that day! Not a lot of non-maidens or maiden-winner-only’s will get into these races either. So there’s not much difference between a 5/2, 3/1, 7/2 and a 5/1 or 6/1, as a 10/1 gets over-looked and wins. This happens quite a bit more than you’d think on a Big Race Day. It’s the combination of these first 2 notions that will set your head to reeling on Big Race Days! Stay calm!
- Undercards are important too! They can set the tone for an entire day of racing or what we call at this blog, the “Theme of the Day“. Example: Sometimes certain jockeys, trainers or barns are having good luck in the early undercard races, ever have a hot run playing poker, blackjack, slots, days at the track or too many relationships in your life, so to speak! So the “Trend is your Friend until it comes to an End”, is our adage here! Know the theme for that racing day and you’ll be up to your eyeballs in “fleece”! This isn’t an easy thing to do as every big race day is different but go to enough of them and you’ll start to see it!
- Undercard’s are loaded with “under the radar horses“, so let me explain this notion. Under the radar horses are good horses who show up in lesser races to get the chance at winning some purse money for their connections but most folks will miss this. Under the radar horses have many varying definitions to them but the easiest way to spot them is they generally look out-of-place on your program for the race they are entered in. They too, add their piece to a wild race day!
- Any 2-year-olds or even these early season 3-year-old contests can go in off in the strangest of directions and for one reason. These youngsters are still growing up, still learning how to race. These aren’t the handicap division thoroughbreds with long racing resumes. Horses like “Uncle Mo” for instant whose had but 5 lifetime starts hasn’t even really been tested yet! So if this year’s Derby Trail seems to be all over the map, well it should be, it’s what the Derby Trail is for, a time of testing and we are the ones expecting consistence. All these races should say “Caution youngsters at work”!
No, the simplest way to explain why “Big Race Days” are so wild is that Big Race Days are simply different from the average race day’s predictability that requires a different set of ideas about handicapping these kinds of days and a different set of wagering tools to take advantage of! There’s just so much more going on in Big Race Days and you will need a whole new mindset to deal with them too!
“How to profit from this phenomena”!
- This type of day requires what we call, Defensive-Betting! Defensive-Betting is a term we coined here to describe some ways of wagering on big race days to take advantage of the underlying value in every race, with less risk, as every field will be full thus more money in every wagering pool!
- Start with, at least, 3 or 4 horses in every race then use Boxed exotics, as trying to pull off a single-win-ticket cash will turn painful for you in a heart-beat. Multiple win tickets will work better on days like this, just make sure the lowest odds cover the entire amount you will wager on this race! You will pop a big one or two each big race day and hold on to your wallet, as well!
- Look for good horses being over-looked by the wagering public, example: the 2010 GI Acorn Stakes on Belmont Stakes day was won by a 38/1 shot but she had a couple of very good Graded Stakes wins to her name that year already and shouldn’t have been 38/1. Your amateur wagers miss this one! This horse should have been 15/1 or less here and in your boxed exotics too. Look for crazy under-betting like this! It’s a winning notion!
- We talked about “Themes” before, well the answer is, don’t tempt fate if you find that flow to the day. Stay with it until it turns. If favorites are ruling the day early, stay with them.
- Got a 1/9, 1/5, 1/4, 2 or 3/5 favorite in a race then start looking for another answer, as the public is probably over-betting here, “this is a key tool you well find useful on Big Race Days“. Secretariat and Zenyatta are not racing anymore, so there is no one out there today who cannot be beaten! re. “Uncle Mo“ everyone!
So Big Race Days are indeed different from average ones. As the rules for average daily wagering will get skewed by the upgraded talent levels in each race and the track bias for that day. Use the above tools, plus our “10” rules for better wagering on our wagering for dummies page under the Racing Information tab at the top of our homepage!
These tools should help you bypass most of the Big Race Day pitfalls but you’ve got to stay cool and think you way through each situation as it arises!
Good Luck out there everyone!
“You Asked” and “Buddha Provides” !