We’ve read all of the Past Performances for this field of 13, 3yo young ladies.
We’ve studied the morning workout reports and watch all of video we could find on these fine fillies.
So let’s queue up the 137th running the Kentucky Oaks, for a newly expanded purse of $1 million, going 1 1/8 mile for 13 deb’s out for the “Run for the Lilies” here at Churchill Downs this Friday!
The 5/2 favorite is Joyful Victory, a Larry Jones trained filly, who is coming off consecutive G/S wins in Oaklawn’s, GIII Honeybee and GII Oaklawn Oaks! This daughter of Tapit won both of those races by a combine 15 lengths so the 1:44 and chg for both 1 1/16 mile tests isn’t suspicious to us as she just hasn’t been pushed yet this year. So exactas and tri’s for this one
At 4/1 are Kathmanblu and Zazu too!
Kathmanblu was the buzz in cajun-land this winter in the 3yo filly division. Where she won a Stakes and Graded Stakes contests at the Fair Grounds on both dirt and turf. Her last outing was an upset 3rd in that GI Ashland Stakes at Keeneland a few weeks back, but the Keeneland/poly does funny things to horse who has never run on it before. So if she can put that race behind her then she should be in the thick of things here on Friday. Exotics all around for her!
Zazu is a So/Cal invader here on Friday. This one and Turbulent Descent have been at one another for about 6 races that I could count in sunny Southern California since they both started as 2yo’s! Turbulent Descent took the Santa Anita Oaks by a neck over Zazu, turning the tables on Zazu’s winning performance in the GI Las Virgenes! We were hoping for a R Heat Lightning, Zazu, Turbulent Decent and Kathmanblu showdown here on Friday but we’ll have to settle for only half of that hope! Zazu is a closer, so right into your exotics she should go!
At 5/1 is Summer Soiree and Plum Pretty!
Summer Soiree is the winner of the GIII Burbonette at Turfway her last trip out. She was a “wire to wire” winner that day winning by 10 lengths. This one likes to go fast and first, so she’ll at least be the early speed here Friday. We don’t think she can go 1 1/8 here friday and not against this group either. So supers for her on Friday!
Plum Pretty is the winner of the Sunland Oaks by 25, that’s right, 25 lengths over, well, not much competition that day. She has also finished 3rd, twice in those early Santa Anita, 3yo filly, Graded Stakes contests this year. So that means she never gotten past Zazu and we don’t think she will on friday either! Tri’s and super’s for the Sunland Oaks champ!
At 12/1 is Lilacs and Lace, the big upset winner of the GI Ashland Stakes over Kathmanblu. We’d like to be impressed with the rest of her resume but it’s a Poly resume so winning at Keeneland shouldn’t have been a surprise but winning at Churchill, well that’s another matter. So super her up because you don’t know how she’ll react to the “dirt” first time out!
At 20/1 are a trio of deal-breakers here in Her Smile, Bouquet Booth and Daisy Devine. All 3 are either Stakes or Grade Stakes winners and have no trouble finding the board either. These 3 are better values than say Plum Pretty or Summer Soiree. So if these 20/1 odds are still available at post time than they belong in your super’s somewhere at the very least! If a blow-up is coming in this race, it very well could come from one of this trio!
At 30/1 and 50/1 are St. John’s River, Suave Voir Faire, Street Storm and Holy Heavens respectively! All four have board hits in G/S company or a Stakes win to complete this GI field here on Friday! Of the 4, St John’s River looks to be the best of this bunch out here in “long-odds” land! So she might be useable in a super somewhere!
So we like Joyful Victory, Zazu and Kathmanblu in our first-tier thinking, followed up Her Smile, Bouquet Booth and Daisy Devine in our 2nd tier and Plum Pretty & St John’s River rounding out are super thoughts!
This race does offer a ton a value, if played correctly as there isn’t much different between the 5/2 favorite and the 30/1 long shot talent-wise.
If the track is fast on friday, you can probably toss out the Poly-horses first!
So this field looks the part of a big-time GI race and the winner here will take a big step forward in her career as a GI Kentucky Oaks win on her resume will open up even more GI opportunities from this win on Friday!
So Kentucky Oaks day is upon us once again as all the 3yo ladies will come out to “Run for the Lilies” here at Churchill Downs this friday!
“Jill Byrne” with an Oaks Workout Reports!