The GI, $750,000, for 3yo’s only, going 1 1/8 mile, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes is on tap this Saturday on Keeneland’s premiere race day of its spring meet!
We wait all year-long for this race, why? Well, America and all points on the globe, if you are looking for the most unpredictable, crazy, loopy, loony and insane race you’d ever have to handicap, this one is it!
Imagine, if you will, you have 12, 3yo’s all in a desperate scramble to get enough G/S earnings from this race to make the Derby field in 3 weeks, put them all on this Keeneland poly-surface for the first time ever and then make them go 1 1/8 mile for the first time in their lives!
This is “Keeneland’s” annual formula for insane 3yo wagering!
So lets check this field of 12 desperate 3-year-olds on a “last-chance power drive”.
Santiva is the 3/1 favorite here with the Poly-track experience. We’d be all over him here but for 2 factors (no pun intended).
a.) he already has the G/S earnings to make the Derby field!
b.) is he just out for the exercise here?
I don’t know about you, but if I had a 3yo with enough G/S earnings for a derby gate how hard would I tell the jockey to push him in here! He may be 3/1 on the m/l but “me thinks” the only way he wins this is if it just falls into his lap! Supers only!
At 5/1 is King Congie who’s a fine 3yo turfer with 3 straight turf wins, bugged out of the Spiral at Turfway last month with an “injury”! He’s trying the poly for the first time here but has gone the mile and 1/8 before. 5/1 sounds good to us, exotics for him!
At 6/1 are the odd-couple in Wilkinson and Brilliant Speed.
Wilkinson is here to pick up G/S money and will need a win or a place showing to make it to Louisville. He won the GIII Le Comte but then finished 6th in the Louisiana Derby last time out. Don’t know if he’ll like the poly any better either. Dime supers only!!!
Brilliant Speed is a stakes-running-turfer with 5 board-hits in 5 races. He might take to the poly Ok, but needs the win to move on! Dime supers for him too!
At 10/1, 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 is the rest of this field. So here are the names we think could spring a surprise win here. Twinspired, Joe’s Blazing Aaron, Wilcox Inn, Crimson China and Queen’splatekitten! All of them should find their way into 10 cent supers somewhere, as well!
Keeneland/Krazyland tradition of off-the-wall finishes was only reinforced in last Saturday’s GI Ashland Stakes where another 48/1 longshot won that race.
Our best picks for this race are simple, spent $18 on the 9 we mentioned, in $2 win tickets and then sit back and watch this race unfold right before your very eyes. It will be great fun and probably highly profitable too as you’ll only need an 8/1 shot to win and break even. Sorry it’s the best we can do under these crazy conditions.
Note* Since going to the poly, this race’s winner has never gone on to win a Kentucky Derby.
Street Sense took a 2nd here in ’07 and Paddy O’Prado who took a 2nd here last year then finished 3rd over the Louisville slop in 2010 and that’s about it for this race’s influence on a Kentucky Derby outcome!
Just remember this is America’s craziest race with 11 of the 12 horses in here, who are all desperate for a win to move on to Churchill Downs on May 7th! So “anything” and I do mean “anything” can happen here. “SO BE WARNED” or sit it out! We wouldn’t miss this race for all the “Tea in China”! Good Luck out there with this contest everyone!